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Investigating Deforestation with Satellite Imagery

Data and Research

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logging | Global Forest Watch Blog

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Sarah Carter

Fred Stolle

Mikaela Weisse

Stientje van Veldhoven

<p>A recent analysis found that tall, mature forests — which are critical for storing carbon and safeguarding biodiversity — are declining significantly in some parts of Europe. This is primarily due to a rise in timber harvesting as well as natural disturbances, such as wildfires and pests, which are often exacerbated by climate change.</p>



<p>There was some good news as well.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425723003486" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The study</a>, from the University of Maryland and WRI in partnership with European researchers, shows that Europe’s total tree cover increased slightly over the last two decades. But that’s not the full story: Some regions within Europe saw significant declines in forest area. And the total amount of&nbsp;<em>tall forests&nbsp;</em>(forests with trees taller than 15 meters) declined by 2.25 million hectares — an area half the size of Denmark. The decline was highest in Nordic countries, which saw a 20% reduction in tall forests, followed by areas in Southeastern Europe. While tall forests have often been replaced with new trees, these can take decades to mature to the point where they provide equivalent climate and ecosystem benefits, meaning overall forest health in these areas is being reduced.</p>



<p>These findings underscore the need for ambitious action on the part of EU countries to protect and maintain existing forests and the vital services they provide. Progress is underway, with a number of new laws aimed at curbing deforestation and forest degradation. But to be successful, these must be informed by timely, robust data on forest health and disturbances. The proposed <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5909" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Forest Monitoring Framework</a>, issued on November 22, 2023, should support these efforts by ensuring harmonized and improved forest monitoring in Europe — if it mandates comparable and consistent reporting on key forest health indicators throughout the EU.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Europe Lost 2.25 Million Hectares of Tall Forests From 2001-2021</h2>



<p>Between 2001 and 2021, Europe experienced a small net gain in tree cover of around 1%, or 1.5 million hectares. With tree cover declining&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-extent#is-global-tree-cover-increasing-or-decreasing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in almost all other areas</a>&nbsp;around the world, this is an important achievement. But despite this overall gain, the findings also show that Europe’s tall forests&nbsp;<em>declined&nbsp;</em>by 3%, or 2.25 million hectares, over the same period. Tall forests were disproportionately affected by an acceleration of forest disturbance in recent years, including both harvesting activities and natural disturbances.</p>



<p>The analysis shows strong variability between regions, with some experiencing significant losses in forest area while others saw more gains. The Nordic region (Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland) saw the biggest declines, losing 3.5% of its total forests and 20% of its tall forests over the last two decades.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="2048" height="1950" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23-11-14-European-Forest-Decline_Insights-no-logo-1-2048x1950.png" alt="Map showing net change in tall tree cover (height greater than or equal to 15 meters) in Europe 2001-2021" class="wp-image-16502" srcset="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23-11-14-European-Forest-Decline_Insights-no-logo-1-2048x1950.png 2048w, https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23-11-14-European-Forest-Decline_Insights-no-logo-1-1024x975.png 1024w, https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23-11-14-European-Forest-Decline_Insights-no-logo-1-768x731.png 768w, https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23-11-14-European-Forest-Decline_Insights-no-logo-1-1536x1463.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /></figure>



<p>The vast majority (around 87%) of tree cover loss was due to intensive timber harvesting — which can take the form of direct felling or salvage logging after a disturbance — as well as natural disturbances like wildfires and insect outbreaks, which are increasing in extent and severity due to climate change.</p>



<p>Most tree cover loss will be temporary as new forest growth in Europe is largely compensating for forest loss in terms of area alone. But tall forests are being cleared at a faster rate than new forests can regrow, leading to a gradual decline in forest height and a reduction of forest services such as carbon storage over time. So while Europe isn’t losing tree cover overall, the health of its forests is declining.</p>



<p>This decline in Europe’s tall forests is a sign that timber harvesting may already exceed rates that can be sustained into the future. With global demand for timber&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc2265en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">expected to grow</a>&nbsp;in the coming decades, Europe should heed this warning and take action to avoid running down its precious forest assets.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Tall Forests So Important?</h2>



<p>While most forests in Europe have been intensively managed by humans for centuries, these forests still provide immense value for people and nature.</p>



<p>For one, the carbon storage capacity of trees increases with height and age, meaning the loss of tall trees and a resulting shift toward shorter, younger trees reduces the carbon storage capacity of Europe’s forests. While the full carbon picture is complicated (for example, young forests absorb carbon from the atmosphere at a faster rate than older standing forests), <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/forests-absorb-twice-much-carbon-they-emit-each-year" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">protecting mature forests</a> is critical for curbing climate change.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="760" height="477" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/20_01_21_Carbon_Flux_v2_Graphic_1.png" alt="Illustration: Forests act as both a source and a sink for carbon" class="wp-image-16503"/></figure>



<p>These tall forests also include many of Europe’s old growth forests, which take centuries to grow and cannot be replaced by young, regrowing forests. Old growth forests&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00988-7" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">play a key role</a>&nbsp;in climate change mitigation by storing large quantities of carbon both in their biomass and in their soil. They provide ecosystem services like protecting soil health and regulating water drainage, and act as a critical refuge for wildlife and biodiversity. They are also a valuable part of cultural heritage for European communities and nations.</p>



<p>Further, even though the last two decades saw a slight increase in tree cover in Europe overall, much of this increase is due to expansion of tree plantations — specifically plantations of non-native tree species such as eucalyptus, black locust and Sitka spruce. This likely has&nbsp;<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.13440" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">negative consequences</a>&nbsp;for ecosystems, such as reduced diversity and abundance of plants and animals, particularly where more diverse natural forests are replaced by monoculture plantations.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New EU Regulations Could Curb Forest Degradation, but Improved Monitoring Is Needed</h2>



<p>Europe is working to improve forest management and address its contribution to forest loss worldwide through a number of new and developing laws and strategies. These include:</p>



<ul>
<li><strong>The&nbsp;<a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/strategy/forest-strategy_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Forest Strategy for 2030</a>:</strong>&nbsp;A strategy to improve the quantity and quality of EU forests and strengthen their protection, restoration and resilience.</li>



<li><strong>The&nbsp;<a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/strategy/biodiversity-strategy-2030_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030</a>:</strong>&nbsp;A comprehensive long-term plan to protect nature and reverse ecosystem degradation in the EU.</li>



<li><strong>The proposed&nbsp;<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_23_5662" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nature Restoration Law</a>:</strong>&nbsp;A binding regulation to restore nature, including putting restoration measures in place for at least 20% of the EU’s land areas and 20% of its seas by 2030.</li>



<li><strong>The <a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/regulation-deforestation-free-products_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Deforestation Regulation</a>:</strong> A binding regulation to ensure that certain commodities exported to or placed on the EU market are <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/blog/commodities/satellite-data-eu-regulation-deforestation-free-supply-chains/">deforestation free</a>.</li>
</ul>



<p>These initiatives show progress is moving in the right direction, but they must be supported by improved monitoring and transparency to be most effective. This is the aim of the proposed <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5909" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forest Monitoring Framework</a> — a regulatory initiative to ensure that European member states provide detailed, robust and timely information on the condition and management of EU forests, including indicators on their health, quality and trends over time.</p>



<p>With better monitoring, Europe will be able to assess whether its forests are managed sustainably, evaluate the ability of forests to contribute to climate change mitigation and identify priority forests to protect. Monitoring efforts under the framework must be harmonized to allow comparison and understanding across the EU, meaning countries should be responsible for reporting on the same set of indicators. They should also be transparent to encourage public accountability and timely to enable data-based decision making on appropriate time scales.</p>



<p>Forests are crucial to fighting climate change and to protecting ecosystems and biodiversity. To maximize their potential, Europe should look deeper into its forests. Satellite monitoring and data products, like the ones used in this study or through the open-source <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/">Global Forest Watch</a>, combined with ground-based measurements can support implementation of the Forest Monitoring Framework Regulation and help ensure all of Europe’s forests are on the right track.</p>



<hr> 

<div class="attribute" style="”padding-bottom:" 10px;”="">
 

Originally appeared on <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/european-tall-forest-decline" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WRI Insights</a>. 
 

</div> 

 

<hr>



<style type="text/css"></style>

Timber Harvesting and Climate Change Are Depleting Europe’s Mature Forests

<p>A recent analysis found that tall, mature forests — which are critical for storing carbon and safeguarding biodiversity — are declining significantly in some parts of Europe. This is primarily due to a rise in timber harvesting as well as natural disturbances, such as wildfires and pests, which are often exacerbated by climate change.</p>



<p>There was some good news as well.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425723003486" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The study</a>, from the University of Maryland and WRI in partnership with European researchers, shows that Europe’s total tree cover increased slightly over the last two decades. But that’s not the full story: Some regions within Europe saw significant declines in forest area. And the total amount of&nbsp;<em>tall forests&nbsp;</em>(forests with trees taller than 15 meters) declined by 2.25 million hectares — an area half the size of Denmark. The decline was highest in Nordic countries, which saw a 20% reduction in tall forests, followed by areas in Southeastern Europe. While tall forests have often been replaced with new trees, these can take decades to mature to the point where they provide equivalent climate and ecosystem benefits, meaning overall forest health in these areas is being reduced.</p>



<p>These findings underscore the need for ambitious action on the part of EU countries to protect and maintain existing forests and the vital services they provide. Progress is underway, with a number of new laws aimed at curbing deforestation and forest degradation. But to be successful, these must be informed by timely, robust data on forest health and disturbances. The proposed <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5909" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Forest Monitoring Framework</a>, issued on November 22, 2023, should support these efforts by ensuring harmonized and improved forest monitoring in Europe — if it mandates comparable and consistent reporting on key forest health indicators throughout the EU.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Europe Lost 2.25 Million Hectares of Tall Forests From 2001-2021</h2>



<p>Between 2001 and 2021, Europe experienced a small net gain in tree cover of around 1%, or 1.5 million hectares. With tree cover declining&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-extent#is-global-tree-cover-increasing-or-decreasing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in almost all other areas</a>&nbsp;around the world, this is an important achievement. But despite this overall gain, the findings also show that Europe’s tall forests&nbsp;<em>declined&nbsp;</em>by 3%, or 2.25 million hectares, over the same period. Tall forests were disproportionately affected by an acceleration of forest disturbance in recent years, including both harvesting activities and natural disturbances.</p>



<p>The analysis shows strong variability between regions, with some experiencing significant losses in forest area while others saw more gains. The Nordic region (Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland) saw the biggest declines, losing 3.5% of its total forests and 20% of its tall forests over the last two decades.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23-11-14-European-Forest-Decline_Insights-no-logo-1-2048x1950.png" alt="Map showing net change in tall tree cover (height greater than or equal to 15 meters) in Europe 2001-2021" class="wp-image-16502"/></figure>



<p>The vast majority (around 87%) of tree cover loss was due to intensive timber harvesting — which can take the form of direct felling or salvage logging after a disturbance — as well as natural disturbances like wildfires and insect outbreaks, which are increasing in extent and severity due to climate change.</p>



<p>Most tree cover loss will be temporary as new forest growth in Europe is largely compensating for forest loss in terms of area alone. But tall forests are being cleared at a faster rate than new forests can regrow, leading to a gradual decline in forest height and a reduction of forest services such as carbon storage over time. So while Europe isn’t losing tree cover overall, the health of its forests is declining.</p>



<p>This decline in Europe’s tall forests is a sign that timber harvesting may already exceed rates that can be sustained into the future. With global demand for timber&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cc2265en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">expected to grow</a>&nbsp;in the coming decades, Europe should heed this warning and take action to avoid running down its precious forest assets.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Tall Forests So Important?</h2>



<p>While most forests in Europe have been intensively managed by humans for centuries, these forests still provide immense value for people and nature.</p>



<p>For one, the carbon storage capacity of trees increases with height and age, meaning the loss of tall trees and a resulting shift toward shorter, younger trees reduces the carbon storage capacity of Europe’s forests. While the full carbon picture is complicated (for example, young forests absorb carbon from the atmosphere at a faster rate than older standing forests), <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/forests-absorb-twice-much-carbon-they-emit-each-year" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">protecting mature forests</a> is critical for curbing climate change.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/20_01_21_Carbon_Flux_v2_Graphic_1.png" alt="Illustration: Forests act as both a source and a sink for carbon" class="wp-image-16503"/></figure>



<p>These tall forests also include many of Europe’s old growth forests, which take centuries to grow and cannot be replaced by young, regrowing forests. Old growth forests&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00988-7" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">play a key role</a>&nbsp;in climate change mitigation by storing large quantities of carbon both in their biomass and in their soil. They provide ecosystem services like protecting soil health and regulating water drainage, and act as a critical refuge for wildlife and biodiversity. They are also a valuable part of cultural heritage for European communities and nations.</p>



<p>Further, even though the last two decades saw a slight increase in tree cover in Europe overall, much of this increase is due to expansion of tree plantations — specifically plantations of non-native tree species such as eucalyptus, black locust and Sitka spruce. This likely has&nbsp;<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.13440" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">negative consequences</a>&nbsp;for ecosystems, such as reduced diversity and abundance of plants and animals, particularly where more diverse natural forests are replaced by monoculture plantations.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New EU Regulations Could Curb Forest Degradation, but Improved Monitoring Is Needed</h2>



<p>Europe is working to improve forest management and address its contribution to forest loss worldwide through a number of new and developing laws and strategies. These include:</p>



<ul>
<li><strong>The&nbsp;<a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/strategy/forest-strategy_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Forest Strategy for 2030</a>:</strong>&nbsp;A strategy to improve the quantity and quality of EU forests and strengthen their protection, restoration and resilience.</li>



<li><strong>The&nbsp;<a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/strategy/biodiversity-strategy-2030_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030</a>:</strong>&nbsp;A comprehensive long-term plan to protect nature and reverse ecosystem degradation in the EU.</li>



<li><strong>The proposed&nbsp;<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_23_5662" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nature Restoration Law</a>:</strong>&nbsp;A binding regulation to restore nature, including putting restoration measures in place for at least 20% of the EU's land areas and 20% of its seas by 2030.</li>



<li><strong>The <a href="https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/regulation-deforestation-free-products_en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EU Deforestation Regulation</a>:</strong> A binding regulation to ensure that certain commodities exported to or placed on the EU market are <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/blog/commodities/satellite-data-eu-regulation-deforestation-free-supply-chains/">deforestation free</a>.</li>
</ul>



<p>These initiatives show progress is moving in the right direction, but they must be supported by improved monitoring and transparency to be most effective. This is the aim of the proposed <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5909" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forest Monitoring Framework</a> — a regulatory initiative to ensure that European member states provide detailed, robust and timely information on the condition and management of EU forests, including indicators on their health, quality and trends over time.</p>



<p>With better monitoring, Europe will be able to assess whether its forests are managed sustainably, evaluate the ability of forests to contribute to climate change mitigation and identify priority forests to protect. Monitoring efforts under the framework must be harmonized to allow comparison and understanding across the EU, meaning countries should be responsible for reporting on the same set of indicators. They should also be transparent to encourage public accountability and timely to enable data-based decision making on appropriate time scales.</p>



<p>Forests are crucial to fighting climate change and to protecting ecosystems and biodiversity. To maximize their potential, Europe should look deeper into its forests. Satellite monitoring and data products, like the ones used in this study or through the open-source <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/">Global Forest Watch</a>, combined with ground-based measurements can support implementation of the Forest Monitoring Framework Regulation and help ensure all of Europe’s forests are on the right track.</p>



<hr> 

<div class="attribute" style="”padding-bottom:" 10px;”="">
 

Originally appeared on <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/european-tall-forest-decline" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WRI Insights</a>. 
 

</div> 

 

<hr>

Timber Harvesting and Climate Change Are Depleting Europe's Mature Forests

A new study found that important tall, mature forests are declining in some parts of Europe due to timber harvesting and climate change.

Timber Harvesting and Climate Change Are Depleting Europe&#8217;s Mature Forests

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The Latest Data Confirms: Forest Fires Are Getting Worse

The latest data on forest fires confirms: Fires are becoming more widespread, burning nearly twice as much tree cover today as 20 years ago.

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Natural Protected Areas in Mexico: A Strategic Front for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

<div class="imageright"><img class=" wp-image-3569 alignright" style="padding-bottom: 10px;" alt="Photo of tree canopies in Mexico" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/MXblog_1_trees.jpg" width="100%">Photo credit: René Ibarra  </div>



<p>According to the latest analysis on the <a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/latest-analysis-deforestation-trends" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global Forest Review</a>, during 2021, the tropics lost 11.1 million ha (hectares) of <a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/key-terms-definitions" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">tree cover</a>. The rate of tropical primary forest loss alone reached 10 football pitches per minute, generating the same amount of CO<sub>2</sub> as the annual fossil fuel emissions of <a href="https://di.unfccc.int/time_series" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">India</a>. Globally in 2021, the world lost 25.3 million ha of tree cover, equivalent to the area of Ecuador.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Forests are a strategic component to addressing climate change. Each year, they <a href="https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/forests-and-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">absorb a third</a> of the CO2 released by the burning of fossil fuels. In addition, they are home to 80% of the world's terrestrial biodiversity, support soil formation and aquifer recharge and prevent desertification. Because of the economic, social and environmental importance of forests, and their persistent loss at a global level, there are voluntary, public, and private instruments, mechanisms, and legal and economic incentives that seek to protect the integrity of these ecosystems and the biodiversity they house. One of these instruments is the establishment and management of Natural Protected Areas (NPAs).&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>



<p>Approximately <a href="http://www.conafor.gob.mx:8080/documentos/docs/1/7749El%20Sector%20Forestal%20Mexicano%20en%20Cifras%202019.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">17% of Mexico’s territory</a> is forested. However, GFW monitoring reveals that these ecosystems continue to experience significant losses and 2021 was no exception. This blog addresses the crucial role NPAs play in reducing forest loss and achieving Mexico’s climate and biodiversity commitments. Furthermore, it analyses tree cover loss between three areas with different protection categories in the state of Campeche, seeking to highlight the role of NPAs in mitigating deforestation.&nbsp;</p>



<h2>Forest Loss in Mexico&nbsp;</h2>



<p>According to GFW, in 2021, Mexico was the twenty-sixth country with the greatest tree cover loss, losing 189,080 ha of tree cover, or 1.25 times the area of Mexico City, releasing 85 megatons of CO<sub>2</sub>e into the atmosphere. This loss is important since the Mexican economy, particularly in the rural context, is highly dependent on its forests and jungles through forest-sector employment, trade of timber and non-timber products, ecotourism, and other environmental services with economic importance.&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/GFW_Nacional_EN-2048x1138.jpg" alt="Graph of tree cover loss in Mexico, 2002-2021" class="wp-image-14005"/></figure>



<p>Nearly 60% of the tree cover loss at the national level was concentrated in five states: Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz and Quintana Roo. These states lead the deforestation lists in recent decades. In fact, the National Forestry Commission of Mexico (CONAFOR) has identified several <a href="http://www.conafor.gob.mx:8080/documentos/docs/1/7768Documento%20tecnico%202020%20Deforestacion%20Bruta%20Final.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">deforestation hotspots</a> within their territories.&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/GFW_Por-estado_EN-2048x1138.jpg" alt="Graph of tree cover loss by state in Mexico, 2021" class="wp-image-14004"/></figure>



<p>During 2021, the rate of tree cover loss in Mexico decreased by 31% compared to the average of the previous five years. However, <a href="https://wrimexico.org/bloga/reporta-global-forest-watch-m%C3%A1ximos-en-p%C3%A9rdida-de-cobertura-forestal-desde-2001" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the last five years recorded</a> four of the five years with the largest loss of tree cover. Thus, the 2021 loss is comparable to the loses that had been maintained up until 2015. Although the reduction represents a respite from the previous rate of losses, it is far from being a trend. For that to be the case, tree cover loss must remain low in the coming years.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The tree cover loss seen in Mexico is the result of social, environmental, economic and governance conditions. In general, the opportunity cost of forest conservation hardly competes with other land uses, such as agriculture, real estate or tourism development. However, determining the causes of the decrease in tree cover loss in 2021 requires an analysis of the conditions in each region. A potential explanation is that, after years of high rates of tree cover loss, there are fewer areas still suitable for exploitation, or what remains is not financially viable for exploitation.&nbsp;</p>



<h2>The Importance of Natural Protected Areas in the Face of Forest Loss&nbsp;</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/MXblog_2_mountains-2048x1365.jpg" alt="Photo of mountains in Mexico Protected Natural Area" class="wp-image-14001"/><figcaption>Photo credit: René Ibarra </figcaption></figure>



<p>Tree cover loss is the permanent or temporary removal of tree cover for any reason, including anthropogenic and natural causes, such as fires. It is a phenomenon that can lead to deforestation, defined as the permanent elimination of forest cover, and induces changes that negatively affect ecosystem structure and functioning. In Mexico, tree cover loss <a href="https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5609275&amp;fecha=31/12/2020#gsc.tab=0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">is the main direct cause</a> of degradation of terrestrial ecosystems and loss of biodiversity.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Forest degradation impacts the quality of ecosystem services, water services, climate regulation and carbon storage. To maximize the benefits from forests, it is necessary to maintain forest landscapes intact and ensure their sustainable management. Therefore, preventing deforestation is as important as protecting the integrity of existing forest areas.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In addition to being a key part of the solution to climate change, forest conservation creates synergies to address other global crises, such as biodiversity loss, desertification and drought. Similarly, forests contribute to local livelihoods and the national economy.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Environmental regulations and other political instruments <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934119302011" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">directly and indirectly influence</a> deforestation rates in the world. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ldr.2970" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">NPAs have been identified as useful tools</a> to mitigate the loss of tree cover and deforestation. In Mexico, where approximately 11% of the land area <a href="http://sig.conanp.gob.mx/website/pagsig/datos_anp.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">is under some category of federal NPA</a>, several studies <a href="http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1870-34532011000300020" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">estimate the effectiveness of the NPAs</a> based on their ability to stop urban growth and prevent land use change processes. In most of the NPAs analyzed, the rates of change are lower than their surrounding areas and the ecoregions in which they are located.&nbsp;</p>



<h2>Evidence from Protected Areas in Campeche&nbsp;</h2>



<p>We compared three areas under different protection categories in the state of Campeche to visualize the role of NPAs in mitigating tree cover loss: the Calakmul federal NPA; a <a href="https://www.gob.mx/conanp/articulos/areas-destinadas-voluntariamente-a-la-conservacion-participacion-social-por-el-ambiente-193042#:~:text=Las%20%C3%81reas%20Destinadas%20Voluntariamente%20a,la%20participaci%C3%B3n%20de%20la%20sociedad." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Voluntary Conservation Area (ADVC)</a> in the surrounding area of Calakmul; and an area without any category of protection but with the same type of ecosystems as the two previous areas. Uploading the polygons onto the <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/map/?analysis=eyJzaG93RHJhdyI6dHJ1ZX0%3D&amp;mainMap=eyJzaG93QW5hbHlzaXMiOnRydWV9&amp;map=eyJkYXRhc2V0cyI6W3siZGF0YXNldCI6InBvbGl0aWNhbC1ib3VuZGFyaWVzIiwibGF5ZXJzIjpbImRpc3B1dGVkLXBvbGl0aWNhbC1ib3VuZGFyaWVzIiwicG9saXRpY2FsLWJvdW5kYXJpZXMiXSwib3BhY2l0eSI6MSwidmlzaWJpbGl0eSI6dHJ1ZX0seyJkYXRhc2V0IjoidHJlZS1jb3Zlci1sb3NzIiwibGF5ZXJzIjpbInRyZWUtY292ZXItbG9zcyJdLCJvcGFjaXR5IjoxLCJ2aXNpYmlsaXR5Ijp0cnVlfV19">GFW platform</a>, we compared the areas of tree cover lost between 2015 and 2021 for the three areas, as well as for the entire state of Campeche.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Because the areas had very different dimensions, we normalized the hectares of cover lost per year with respect to the area of each polygon. The figures reported in the graph represent the percentage of tree cover loss during the selected years in each polygon.&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/GWF_Campeche_EN-2048x1237.jpg" alt="Graph of tree cover loss in Campeche, 2015-2021" class="wp-image-14003"/></figure>



<p>The results show that, for all the years, the areas with some level of protection (Calakmul and ADVC) experienced a lower percentage of tree cover loss than the average loss in the state of Campeche. Comparing the protected areas with unprotected area, the percentages of loss in protected areas were lower in five of the seven years analyzed. This exercise is a first attempt to visualize the importance of protected areas in one of the states with the highest levels of tree cover loss in Mexico.&nbsp;</p>



<h2>Forest Conservation in the National and Global Environmental Agenda&nbsp;</h2>



<p>The value of NPAs and other tools for forest landscape conservation becomes more relevant when considering the various commitments Mexico has made to halt deforestation and forest loss.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The mitigation component of the Mexican <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/NDC-Esp-30Dic.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nationally Determined Contribution</a> (NDC) seeks to achieve zero net deforestation by 2030. The commitment was reiterated at COP26, where Mexico signed the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use</a>, promising to stop and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Likewise, addressing forest loss is the backbone of several regional and voluntary initiatives Mexico has signed on. For example, within the framework of the <a href="https://initiative20x20.org/members" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">20x20 initiative</a> , Mexico committed to restoring one million ha of forest cover by 2020. The initiative was updated for 2030 to protect and restore at least 50 million ha for said year. Likewise, the Bonn Challenge and the New York Declaration on Forests seek to restore another 350 million ha globally by 2030.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that reducing the rate of deforestation and forest degradation <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">is one of the most robust mechanisms to mitigate climate change</a>. It is estimated that the Mexican forestry sector can contribute to reaching <a href="https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5609275&amp;fecha=31/12/2020#gsc.tab=0" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">22% of the national goal for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions</a> established in the Paris Agreement, which would contribute to the mitigation of 46 million tons of CO2 equivalent for the year 2030.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In addition to being an effective strategy for mitigation, forest protection creates synergies for adaptation to climate change since forest ecosystem services contribute to increasing the resilience of forest communities and reducing their vulnerability to climate change impacts, such as flooding and droughts. <a href="https://es.mongabay.com/2022/03/dia-mundial-de-la-adaptacion-al-cambio-climatico-ejemplos-exitosos-en-america-latina/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Several success stories</a> have been reported where the recovery of forested areas in high basins benefits the recharge of aquifers, reduces landslide, and increases the availability of water in forest communities.&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/MXblog_3_mountains-2048x1365.jpg" alt="Photo of mountains in Mexico" class="wp-image-14000"/><figcaption>Photo credit: René Ibarra </figcaption></figure>



<p>Likewise, forest conservation contributes to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and other commitments for biodiversity conservation. Mexico is recognized as one of <a href="https://www.biodiversidad.gob.mx/pais/quees" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the seventeen megadiverse countries in the world</a> and, since 1992, has been part of the <a href="https://www.biodiversidad.gob.mx/planeta/internacional/cbd" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Convention on Biological Diversity</a>, in which it agreed to protect national biodiversity through <a href="https://www.cbd.int/countries/targets/?country=mx" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">various goals</a> including reducing the rate of loss and degradation of protected natural habitats to a value close to zero by 2030.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Finally, conserving forest ecosystems and the biodiversity they house is a way of ensuring the well-being of rural communities, as forests cover close to <a href="https://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5609275&amp;fecha=31/12/2020" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">70% of the national territory and are home to 10.9 million people</a>, many of whom live in poverty and marginalization. Given this vulnerability, the timber and non-timber forest resources are key to maintaining their livelihoods. For example, herbal medicine represents the first access to health in rural communities and is a common way of treating diseases and illnesses.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Forest loss is a global problem that endangers the forest integrity. Besides providing environmental services that sustain the well-being of communities, forests are key for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation and adaptation. Losing the world's forests means undermining our ability to face global crises, such as the climate crisis.&nbsp;</p>



<p>NPAs are one of the most popular mechanisms for the protection of ecosystems in Mexico and have been identified as effective tools to mitigate the tree cover loss. However, the budget allocated to the National Commission for Natural Protected Areas (CONANP) has suffered <a href="https://ciep.mx/presupuesto-dirigido-a-areas-naturales-protegidas-evolucion-2014-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">significant reductions</a> in recent years, which limits its ability to protect areas of high ecological value in the country. Given this, it is necessary to promote initiatives that seek the protection of the country's forests.&nbsp;</p>



<h2>Our Work&nbsp;</h2>



<p>WRI Mexico is involved in multiple efforts to conserve forests in the country. Through GFW, we promote and build capacity for forest monitoring among different stakeholders including journalists, academic institutions, and state governments. Similarly, <a href="https://wrimexico.org/our-work/projects/ciudades-que-protegen-los-bosques-para-el-bienestar-humano" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cities4Forests</a> promotes the conservation of urban and peripheral forests in several Mexican cities, creating a link between the ecosystem services of these areas and those urban populations. Finally, the <a href="https://wrimexico.org/our-work/projects/re3co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">RE3CO</a> initiative is undertaking mangrove conservation and restoration projects and promotes forest valuation while strengthening the livelihoods of coastal communities.&nbsp;</p>



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Originally appeared on <a href="https://wrimexico.org/bloga/%C3%A1reas-naturales-protegidas-un-frente-estrat%C3%A9gico-para-la-mitigaci%C3%B3n-y-adaptaci%C3%B3n-al-cambio" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WRI Mexico</a>. 


 

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Data from GFW shows that Natural Protected Areas in Mexico help prevent forest loss, protect biodiversity and mitigate climate change.

Natural Protected Areas in Mexico Help Protect Forests | GFW Blog

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amazon | Global Forest Watch Blog

Brazil

Brazil | Global Forest Watch Blog

deforestation

deforestation | Global Forest Watch Blog

Indonesia

Indonesia | Global Forest Watch Blog

REDD+

REDD+ | Global Forest Watch Blog

Frances Seymour

<p>More than 12 million hectares of tree cover in the tropics was lost in 2020 alone, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">analysis of University of Maryland data&nbsp;by WRI</a>. Most alarmingly, that included 4.2 million hectares of previously undisturbed primary&nbsp;tropical&nbsp;forests.</p>



<p>This loss represents a crisis for climate stability and biodiversity conservation, as well as a humanitarian disaster and lost economic opportunity.&nbsp;This analysis now covering 20 years of data shows all that’s been lost — as well as the interventions that work.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">In a year when everything else slowed down, forest loss sped up.</h3>



<p>The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted lives and livelihoods around the world, and the global economy contracted by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">around 3.5%</a>&nbsp;in 2020. Yet despite the economic downturn, the loss of primary tropical forests ticked&nbsp;<em>up</em>&nbsp;by 12% compared to 2019, continuing an upward trend. Pandemic-related lockdowns probably contributed to short-term increases in forest loss in some cases by limiting the mobility of law enforcement officials and forcing urban-rural migration, but the more significant impacts of the pandemic on forests are likely yet to come.</p>



<p>Unless they see alternatives, governments grappling with constrained fiscal resources and high levels of debt will be tempted to cut the budgets of environmental agencies and license new investment projects that could show up in forest loss data in future years. And yet new studies (<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/03/19/Building-Back-Better-How-Big-Are-Green-Spending-Multipliers-50264" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.vivideconomics.com/casestudy/greening-the-stimulus-investing-in-nature/" target="_blank">here</a>) are finding that investments in conserving and restoring nature actually provide&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/coronavirus-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more effective stimulus</a>&nbsp;than traditional measures.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Forests are increasingly falling victim to climate change.</h3>



<p>The most ominous signal from&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the 2020 data</a>&nbsp;is the number and variety of instances in which forests themselves suffered in extreme weather events. In the Amazon, burning now occurs&nbsp;<em>inside</em>&nbsp;the rainforest, rather than just along the recently felled edges. Even wetlands are burning! Global warming and forest loss conspire to create warmer, drier conditions, which in turn render forests more vulnerable to fire and pest infestation. Subsequent burning and decay release more carbon emissions, feeding&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/us-fires-climate-emissions" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a vicious cycle</a>.</p>



<p>Nature has been whispering to us about these risks for a long time, but now she is shouting. The longer we wait to both stop deforestation&nbsp;<em>and</em>&nbsp;shift to net-zero emissions trajectories in other sectors, the more likely it is that our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2021/01/forests-carbon-emissions-sink-flux" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">natural carbon sinks</a>&nbsp;will go up in smoke.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">20 years of data demonstrate what works.</h3>



<p>Although the overall trends are distressing, what’s happened in a few individual countries inspires confidence that the drivers of deforestation&nbsp;<em>can</em>&nbsp;be defeated.</p>



<p>Indonesia has now reduced deforestation for four years in a row. Favorable weather, low commodity prices and implementation of corporate commitments to get deforestation out of commodity supply chains have undoubtedly contributed to that trend. But the Indonesian government’s effort also deserves credit. In the aftermath of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/02/exploring-indonesias-long-and-complicated-history-forest-fires" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">devastating fires in 2015</a>, the government beefed up fire prevention and monitoring, and expanded moratoria on conversion of primary forests and peatlands.</p>



<p>What’s significant about the Indonesia story is that it’s been driven by a combination of domestic self-interest — avoiding the severe public health and other costs of fires — and international market and financial incentives. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that one of the provinces that experienced a steep drop in tree cover loss in 2020 was East Kalimantan, which just concluded an&nbsp;<a href="http://greengrowth.bappenas.go.id/en/land-based-ghg-emission-reduction-program-milestone-in-east-kalimantan/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">agreement</a>&nbsp;with the World Bank for up to $110 million in REDD+ finance if the province is successful in bringing down forest-based emissions. The province is also host to one of most mature&nbsp;<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2020.503326/full" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">multisector, multistakeholder initiatives</a>&nbsp;in the country seeking to transition to more sustainable land use. Under a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/indonesias-east-kalimanta_b_10404550" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Green Growth Compact</a>&nbsp;launched in 2016, government agencies, NGOs and the private sector have been coordinating efforts ranging from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2021/benefits-indigenous-community-lands-climate-action" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">securing village rights to forests</a>&nbsp;to protecting high-value forests within oil palm plantations.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What should be done to save forests now?</h3>



<p>These are fragile gains. We’ve seen this movie before. Brazil achieved a huge reduction in deforestation in the Amazon by deploying a suite of proven policy and market interventions, but now we’re witnessing a heartbreaking unraveling of that success: The Brazilian Amazon experienced a&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">15% increase</a>&nbsp;in primary forest loss in 2020 compared to 2019. The policies and rhetoric of the Bolsonaro administration have&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2021/02/brazil-guts-agencies-sabotaging-environmental-protection-in-amazon-report/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">crippled environmental agencies and law enforcement</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/12/bolsonaros-brazil-2019-brings-death-by-1000-cuts-to-amazon-part-one/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">encouraged land-grabbing</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/world/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-amazon-indigenous.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">put indigenous territories at risk</a>.</p>



<p>In the coming months, Indonesia will face rising palm oil prices and pressure to approve forest-risk investments under a recent&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/11/indonesia-omnibus-law-global-investor-letter/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">job creation law</a>, even as a&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2018/09/indonesian-president-signs-3-year-freeze-on-new-oil-palm-licenses/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">three-year moratorium</a>&nbsp;on licensing of new oil palm plantations is set to expire this year. For Indonesia to maintain its success and other countries to follow its lead, the voices of domestic constituencies for forest protection need to be amplified. Space must be maintained for independent monitoring and advocacy by civil society.</p>



<p>The international community needs to ramp up incentives for those governments undertaking serious efforts to address deforestation to create a value proposition for staying the course. Such incentives should include preferential market access for forest-risk commodities that are produced legally and sustainably. Governments should be able to count on financial reward and diplomatic recognition for success in bringing down forest-based emissions. They should also have access to the investment funds, debt relief, and technical support they need to embark on genuinely&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/coronavirus-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">green post-pandemic recovery</a>&nbsp;efforts.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Forest guardians matter</h3>



<p>It’s also important to remember that the forest loss that is visible from satellites has profound impacts on the people and communities on the ground who depend on forests for their health, safety and livelihoods. Their lives matter. What we can see from satellites is that when&nbsp;<a href="https://kayapo.org/tag/indigenous-rights/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">indigenous peoples</a>&nbsp;are present in forests and their rights are strengthened, forest cover is maintained.</p>



<p>Yet the number of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/environmental-activists/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">forest defenders being murdered</a>&nbsp;is rising along with the rate of forest loss.</p>



<p>With global climate summits on&nbsp;<a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/glasgow-climate-change-conference" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">climate change</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbd.int/meetings/COP-15" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">biodiversity</a>&nbsp;on the calendar, 2021 is a year for solidarity among governments committed to averting the worst impacts of forest loss. It’s also time for solidarity with the communities risking their lives to save the world’s remaining forests.</p>



<p>Let’s make 2021 the year that we finally muster the political will and financial resources to ensure that their efforts are successful.</p>



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2021 Must Be a Turning Point for Forests. 2020 Data Shows Us Why

<p>More than 12 million hectares of tree cover in the tropics was lost in 2020 alone, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">analysis of University of Maryland data&nbsp;by WRI</a>. Most alarmingly, that included 4.2 million hectares of previously undisturbed primary&nbsp;tropical&nbsp;forests.</p>



<p>This loss represents a crisis for climate stability and biodiversity conservation, as well as a humanitarian disaster and lost economic opportunity.&nbsp;This analysis now covering 20 years of data shows all that’s been lost — as well as the interventions that work.</p>



<h3>In a year when everything else slowed down, forest loss sped up.</h3>



<p>The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted lives and livelihoods around the world, and the global economy contracted by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">around 3.5%</a>&nbsp;in 2020. Yet despite the economic downturn, the loss of primary tropical forests ticked&nbsp;<em>up</em>&nbsp;by 12% compared to 2019, continuing an upward trend. Pandemic-related lockdowns probably contributed to short-term increases in forest loss in some cases by limiting the mobility of law enforcement officials and forcing urban-rural migration, but the more significant impacts of the pandemic on forests are likely yet to come.</p>



<p>Unless they see alternatives, governments grappling with constrained fiscal resources and high levels of debt will be tempted to cut the budgets of environmental agencies and license new investment projects that could show up in forest loss data in future years. And yet new studies (<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/03/19/Building-Back-Better-How-Big-Are-Green-Spending-Multipliers-50264" target="_blank">here</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.vivideconomics.com/casestudy/greening-the-stimulus-investing-in-nature/" target="_blank">here</a>) are finding that investments in conserving and restoring nature actually provide&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/coronavirus-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more effective stimulus</a>&nbsp;than traditional measures.</p>



<h3>Forests are increasingly falling victim to climate change.</h3>



<p>The most ominous signal from&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the 2020 data</a>&nbsp;is the number and variety of instances in which forests themselves suffered in extreme weather events. In the Amazon, burning now occurs&nbsp;<em>inside</em>&nbsp;the rainforest, rather than just along the recently felled edges. Even wetlands are burning! Global warming and forest loss conspire to create warmer, drier conditions, which in turn render forests more vulnerable to fire and pest infestation. Subsequent burning and decay release more carbon emissions, feeding&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/us-fires-climate-emissions" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a vicious cycle</a>.</p>



<p>Nature has been whispering to us about these risks for a long time, but now she is shouting. The longer we wait to both stop deforestation&nbsp;<em>and</em>&nbsp;shift to net-zero emissions trajectories in other sectors, the more likely it is that our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2021/01/forests-carbon-emissions-sink-flux" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">natural carbon sinks</a>&nbsp;will go up in smoke.</p>



<h3>20 years of data demonstrate what works.</h3>



<p>Although the overall trends are distressing, what’s happened in a few individual countries inspires confidence that the drivers of deforestation&nbsp;<em>can</em>&nbsp;be defeated.</p>



<p>Indonesia has now reduced deforestation for four years in a row. Favorable weather, low commodity prices and implementation of corporate commitments to get deforestation out of commodity supply chains have undoubtedly contributed to that trend. But the Indonesian government’s effort also deserves credit. In the aftermath of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/02/exploring-indonesias-long-and-complicated-history-forest-fires" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">devastating fires in 2015</a>, the government beefed up fire prevention and monitoring, and expanded moratoria on conversion of primary forests and peatlands.</p>



<p>What’s significant about the Indonesia story is that it’s been driven by a combination of domestic self-interest — avoiding the severe public health and other costs of fires — and international market and financial incentives. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that one of the provinces that experienced a steep drop in tree cover loss in 2020 was East Kalimantan, which just concluded an&nbsp;<a href="http://greengrowth.bappenas.go.id/en/land-based-ghg-emission-reduction-program-milestone-in-east-kalimantan/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">agreement</a>&nbsp;with the World Bank for up to $110 million in REDD+ finance if the province is successful in bringing down forest-based emissions. The province is also host to one of most mature&nbsp;<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2020.503326/full" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">multisector, multistakeholder initiatives</a>&nbsp;in the country seeking to transition to more sustainable land use. Under a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/indonesias-east-kalimanta_b_10404550" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Green Growth Compact</a>&nbsp;launched in 2016, government agencies, NGOs and the private sector have been coordinating efforts ranging from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2021/benefits-indigenous-community-lands-climate-action" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">securing village rights to forests</a>&nbsp;to protecting high-value forests within oil palm plantations.</p>



<h3>What should be done to save forests now?</h3>



<p>These are fragile gains. We’ve seen this movie before. Brazil achieved a huge reduction in deforestation in the Amazon by deploying a suite of proven policy and market interventions, but now we’re witnessing a heartbreaking unraveling of that success: The Brazilian Amazon experienced a&nbsp;<a href="https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-pulse" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">15% increase</a>&nbsp;in primary forest loss in 2020 compared to 2019. The policies and rhetoric of the Bolsonaro administration have&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2021/02/brazil-guts-agencies-sabotaging-environmental-protection-in-amazon-report/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">crippled environmental agencies and law enforcement</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/12/bolsonaros-brazil-2019-brings-death-by-1000-cuts-to-amazon-part-one/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">encouraged land-grabbing</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/world/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-amazon-indigenous.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">put indigenous territories at risk</a>.</p>



<p>In the coming months, Indonesia will face rising palm oil prices and pressure to approve forest-risk investments under a recent&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/11/indonesia-omnibus-law-global-investor-letter/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">job creation law</a>, even as a&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2018/09/indonesian-president-signs-3-year-freeze-on-new-oil-palm-licenses/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">three-year moratorium</a>&nbsp;on licensing of new oil palm plantations is set to expire this year. For Indonesia to maintain its success and other countries to follow its lead, the voices of domestic constituencies for forest protection need to be amplified. Space must be maintained for independent monitoring and advocacy by civil society.</p>



<p>The international community needs to ramp up incentives for those governments undertaking serious efforts to address deforestation to create a value proposition for staying the course. Such incentives should include preferential market access for forest-risk commodities that are produced legally and sustainably. Governments should be able to count on financial reward and diplomatic recognition for success in bringing down forest-based emissions. They should also have access to the investment funds, debt relief, and technical support they need to embark on genuinely&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wri.org/coronavirus-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">green post-pandemic recovery</a>&nbsp;efforts.</p>



<h3>Forest guardians matter</h3>



<p>It’s also important to remember that the forest loss that is visible from satellites has profound impacts on the people and communities on the ground who depend on forests for their health, safety and livelihoods. Their lives matter. What we can see from satellites is that when&nbsp;<a href="https://kayapo.org/tag/indigenous-rights/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">indigenous peoples</a>&nbsp;are present in forests and their rights are strengthened, forest cover is maintained.</p>



<p>Yet the number of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/environmental-activists/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">forest defenders being murdered</a>&nbsp;is rising along with the rate of forest loss.</p>



<p>With global climate summits on&nbsp;<a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/glasgow-climate-change-conference" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">climate change</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbd.int/meetings/COP-15" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">biodiversity</a>&nbsp;on the calendar, 2021 is a year for solidarity among governments committed to averting the worst impacts of forest loss. It’s also time for solidarity with the communities risking their lives to save the world’s remaining forests.</p>



<p>Let’s make 2021 the year that we finally muster the political will and financial resources to ensure that their efforts are successful.</p>



<hr> 

<div class="attribute" style="”padding-bottom:" 10px;”=""> 
 

Originally appeared on <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2021/03/2021-must-be-turning-point-forests-2020-data-shows-us-why" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WRI Insights</a>. 
 

</div> 

 

<hr>

Data on forest loss in 2020 shows that this next year will be pivotal to protecting forests and mitigating climate change.

We Need to Turn Forest Loss Around in 2021 | Global Forest Watch Blog

https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3dc298e411f65b199fc3734919d6934e?s=96&d=mm&r=g

Sarah Ruiz

Australia

Australia | Global Forest Watch Blog

Bolivia

Bolivia | Global Forest Watch Blog

commodities

commodities | Global Forest Watch Blog

COVID-19

COVID-19 | Global Forest Watch Blog

DRC | Global Forest Watch Blog

Liz Goldman

Primary Rainforest Destruction Increased 12% from 2019 to 2020

La Destrucción de los Bosques Primarios Aumentó un 12 % de 2019 a 2020

A Destruição das Florestas Tropicais Primárias Aumentou em 12% de 2019 a 2020

Kerusakan Hutan Hujan Primer Meningkat Sebesar 12% dari Tahun 2019 hingga Tahun 2020

Entre 2019 et 2020, la Destruction de la Forêt Tropicale Primaire a Augmenté de 12 %

2020 tree cover loss data reveals the world lost 4.2 million hectares of primary rainforests last year— an area the size of the Netherlands.

What Happened to Global Forests in 2020? | Global Forest Watch Blog

Climate

Learn about the role forests play in the global climate.

Climate | Global Forest Watch Blog

carbon

carbon | Global Forest Watch Blog

Emissions

Emissions | Global Forest Watch Blog

IPCC

IPCC | Global Forest Watch Blog

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Imagery | Global Forest Watch Blog

Sequestration

Sequestration | Global Forest Watch Blog

David Gibbs

<p><a href="https://gfw.global/2MoRaOl" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">New global maps</a> on GFW provide spatially explicit data on emissions, removals and net carbon fluxes from forests.  Whereas previous models only estimate forest carbon fluxes for entire countries or regions, the 30-meter resolution of this data allows users to consistently analyze carbon dynamics in forests down to the local scale. The study was published last week in <a href="https://rdcu.be/cdY40" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Nature Climate Change</em></a>. Here’s what you need to know about the new data.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How were the forest carbon flux maps created?</h3>



<p>The new maps on GFW were produced using a groundbreaking new model, which applies the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">guidelines</a> for national greenhouse gas inventories to high-resolution geospatial data. The inputs to the model include ground, airborne and satellite observations of forest change, disturbances (like deforestation, harvest or burning), and the type, age and condition of forests being lost or gained. </p>



<p>Combining these datasets allows for detailed estimates about how each 30×30 meter piece of forest contributes to global emissions and removals. The maps can be used by researchers to generate national, regional or global-scale estimates of forest carbon fluxes. And thanks to their high resolution, they can also be used by those seeking to monitor local forest carbon dynamics, like Indigenous communities.</p>



<div class="imagecenter"><img decoding="async" class=" wp-image-3569 alignright" style="padding-bottom: 10px;" alt="Forest carbon flux global map" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/forests-global-net-carbon-flux-wri.png" width="100%"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How do GFW’s forest carbon numbers compare to other estimates?</h3>



<p>The <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global Carbon Project</a> (GCP) is the most frequently cited source of data on land-related emissions, but their estimates do not distinguish among forests, grasslands, croplands or other land types. Given that forests are the largest component of land-based fluxes, this is an important distinction. These new maps isolate carbon moving in and out of forests and improve upon past research in a few significant ways.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">1. Consistent methodology maps everything, regardless of human intervention</h3>



<p>At the end of the day, the atmosphere doesn’t care whether emissions come from human activity or natural causes. If we want to slow climate change, we must monitor and address all forest carbon fluxes. The new data on GFW simplifies carbon monitoring by mapping all observed emissions and removals using a single model. In contrast, the GCP data only reports emissions related to human activity (which can be hard to define) and estimates different components (e.g., emissions versus removals) using different models. The subjectivity and complexity inherent to this approach tends to obscure the role of land in climate change, making it difficult to advocate for and implement land-based mitigation solutions.</p>



<div class="imagecenter"><img decoding="async" class=" wp-image-3569 alignright" style="padding-bottom: 10px;" alt="Forest carbon flux data models compared" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/21.01.27_GFW-Flux-Model-Explainer_Breakdown-of-Carbon-Flux-Estimates-002.png" width="100%"></div>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2. Maps are derived from remote sensing data</h3>



<p>The new maps on GFW are based on satellite-derived data created using a globally consistent method. As such, the results are comparable at multiple scales, whether you are estimating forest carbon fluxes within a small patch of forest or across an entire region. Both the GCP and <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/988" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">some other</a> forest-specific carbon flux estimates combine country-reported forest inventory data and models that simulate vegetation growth, metabolism and death. Different countries use a variety of methods to measure forest carbon, creating inconsistencies when the data is combined. Further, nationally reported data is typically not spatially explicit, which prevents estimation of forest carbon fluxes at sub-national scales.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">3. Emissions and removals can be separated</h3>



<p>The new maps on GFW allow for separate estimates of emissions and removals, as well as the net flux between them. This is because the model uses the University of Maryland’s Global Forest Change data, which includes separate data on how much tree cover has been lost, gained, or remains standing. Previous global forest carbon studies have only provided data on net fluxes, while a few studies have disaggregated emissions and removals for the tropics only. GFW’s high-resolution maps of emissions and removals can help decision-makers prioritize different types of conservation or restoration interventions across landscapes.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">4. The model is designed to be continually improved upon as new data becomes available</h3>



<p>For example, new annual tree cover loss data can be folded into the analysis to keep the numbers up to date. As other data, such as drivers of forest loss or more spatially refined carbon removal rates become available, they can be incorporated as well.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How should the new forest carbon model be used?</h3>



<p>The new forest carbon maps can be used to complement national forest inventories and satellites directly observing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The new data’s high resolution, transparent methods, global consistency, and separate accounting of emissions and removals makes it useful for a variety of applications.</p>



<ol type="1"><li>In 2023, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change plans to conduct its first <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/science/workstreams/global-stocktake-referred-to-in-article-14-of-the-paris-agreement" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global Stocktake</a> to assess how the world is doing on its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. All countries will report their land-related carbon fluxes, which include fluxes from forests. Cross-checking these numbers against transparent and independently derived data like GFW’s will be essential for a robust assessment.</li><li>National governments have <a href="https://www.wri.org/ndcs" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">set targets</a> for reducing their emissions under the Paris Agreement, and land and forest emissions are a critical piece of that. Spatial data can help governments decide where to prioritize projects working towards these targets.</li><li>Companies setting <a href="https://sciencebasedtargets.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">science-based targets</a> for reducing emissions need to be able to monitor carbon fluxes on the land they own, lease or source products from. National estimates are too coarse and the quality of the data too varied for companies to adequately understand what’s happening in their supply chains from year to year. The higher spatial resolution of the new maps can help companies diligently track carbon on land in and determine where to intervene.</li><li>These new maps can help non-governmental organizations understand the climate impacts of land management decisions, measure what policies and practices are more or less effective at reducing emissions or increasing sequestration, and monitor the extent to which companies and governments are upholding their commitments.</li></ol>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monitoring is just the first step</h3>



<p>This is just the beginning of a new framework for monitoring global carbon fluxes on land. In the future, new research will address some of the key limitations of the current estimates by mapping emissions from forest degradation and improved detection of forest expansion, refining the accuracy and timeliness of the resulting data.</p>



<p>Meanwhile, this method for mapping both emissions and removals from forests offers unprecedented detail for better management now. Reducing emissions from deforestation, while also scaling up carbon dioxide removals available from forests, is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">necessary</a> for staying below 1.5 degrees of warming.</p>



<style type="text/css"></style>

New Global Maps Estimate Forest Carbon Fluxes in Unprecedented Detail

<p><a href="https://gfw.global/2MoRaOl" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">New global maps</a> on GFW provide spatially explicit data on emissions, removals and net carbon fluxes from forests.  Whereas previous models only estimate forest carbon fluxes for entire countries or regions, the 30-meter resolution of this data allows users to consistently analyze carbon dynamics in forests down to the local scale. The study was published last week in <a href="https://rdcu.be/cdY40" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Nature Climate Change</em></a>. Here’s what you need to know about the new data.</p>



<h3>How were the forest carbon flux maps created?</h3>



<p>The new maps on GFW were produced using a groundbreaking new model, which applies the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">guidelines</a> for national greenhouse gas inventories to high-resolution geospatial data. The inputs to the model include ground, airborne and satellite observations of forest change, disturbances (like deforestation, harvest or burning), and the type, age and condition of forests being lost or gained. </p>



<p>Combining these datasets allows for detailed estimates about how each 30x30 meter piece of forest contributes to global emissions and removals. The maps can be used by researchers to generate national, regional or global-scale estimates of forest carbon fluxes. And thanks to their high resolution, they can also be used by those seeking to monitor local forest carbon dynamics, like Indigenous communities.</p>



<div class="imagecenter"><img class=" wp-image-3569 alignright" style="padding-bottom: 10px;" alt="Forest carbon flux global map" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/forests-global-net-carbon-flux-wri.png" width="100%"></div>



<h3>How do GFW's forest carbon numbers compare to other estimates?</h3>



<p>The <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global Carbon Project</a> (GCP) is the most frequently cited source of data on land-related emissions, but their estimates do not distinguish among forests, grasslands, croplands or other land types. Given that forests are the largest component of land-based fluxes, this is an important distinction. These new maps isolate carbon moving in and out of forests and improve upon past research in a few significant ways.</p>



<h3>1. Consistent methodology maps everything, regardless of human intervention</h3>



<p>At the end of the day, the atmosphere doesn’t care whether emissions come from human activity or natural causes. If we want to slow climate change, we must monitor and address all forest carbon fluxes. The new data on GFW simplifies carbon monitoring by mapping all observed emissions and removals using a single model. In contrast, the GCP data only reports emissions related to human activity (which can be hard to define) and estimates different components (e.g., emissions versus removals) using different models. The subjectivity and complexity inherent to this approach tends to obscure the role of land in climate change, making it difficult to advocate for and implement land-based mitigation solutions.</p>



<div class="imagecenter"><img class=" wp-image-3569 alignright" style="padding-bottom: 10px;" alt="Forest carbon flux data models compared" src="https://dev-global-forest-watch-blog.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/21.01.27_GFW-Flux-Model-Explainer_Breakdown-of-Carbon-Flux-Estimates-002.png" width="100%"></div>



<h3>2. Maps are derived from remote sensing data</h3>



<p>The new maps on GFW are based on satellite-derived data created using a globally consistent method. As such, the results are comparable at multiple scales, whether you are estimating forest carbon fluxes within a small patch of forest or across an entire region. Both the GCP and <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/988" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">some other</a> forest-specific carbon flux estimates combine country-reported forest inventory data and models that simulate vegetation growth, metabolism and death. Different countries use a variety of methods to measure forest carbon, creating inconsistencies when the data is combined. Further, nationally reported data is typically not spatially explicit, which prevents estimation of forest carbon fluxes at sub-national scales.</p>



<h3>3. Emissions and removals can be separated</h3>



<p>The new maps on GFW allow for separate estimates of emissions and removals, as well as the net flux between them. This is because the model uses the University of Maryland’s Global Forest Change data, which includes separate data on how much tree cover has been lost, gained, or remains standing. Previous global forest carbon studies have only provided data on net fluxes, while a few studies have disaggregated emissions and removals for the tropics only. GFW’s high-resolution maps of emissions and removals can help decision-makers prioritize different types of conservation or restoration interventions across landscapes.</p>



<h3>4. The model is designed to be continually improved upon as new data becomes available</h3>



<p>For example, new annual tree cover loss data can be folded into the analysis to keep the numbers up to date. As other data, such as drivers of forest loss or more spatially refined carbon removal rates become available, they can be incorporated as well.</p>



<h3>How should the new forest carbon model be used?</h3>



<p>The new forest carbon maps can be used to complement national forest inventories and satellites directly observing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The new data’s high resolution, transparent methods, global consistency, and separate accounting of emissions and removals makes it useful for a variety of applications.</p>



<ol type="1"><li>In 2023, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change plans to conduct its first <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/science/workstreams/global-stocktake-referred-to-in-article-14-of-the-paris-agreement" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Global Stocktake</a> to assess how the world is doing on its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. All countries will report their land-related carbon fluxes, which include fluxes from forests. Cross-checking these numbers against transparent and independently derived data like GFW’s will be essential for a robust assessment.</li><li>National governments have <a href="https://www.wri.org/ndcs" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">set targets</a> for reducing their emissions under the Paris Agreement, and land and forest emissions are a critical piece of that. Spatial data can help governments decide where to prioritize projects working towards these targets.</li><li>Companies setting <a href="https://sciencebasedtargets.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">science-based targets</a> for reducing emissions need to be able to monitor carbon fluxes on the land they own, lease or source products from. National estimates are too coarse and the quality of the data too varied for companies to adequately understand what’s happening in their supply chains from year to year. The higher spatial resolution of the new maps can help companies diligently track carbon on land in and determine where to intervene.</li><li>These new maps can help non-governmental organizations understand the climate impacts of land management decisions, measure what policies and practices are more or less effective at reducing emissions or increasing sequestration, and monitor the extent to which companies and governments are upholding their commitments.</li></ol>



<h3>Monitoring is just the first step</h3>



<p>This is just the beginning of a new framework for monitoring global carbon fluxes on land. In the future, new research will address some of the key limitations of the current estimates by mapping emissions from forest degradation and improved detection of forest expansion, refining the accuracy and timeliness of the resulting data.</p>



<p>Meanwhile, this method for mapping both emissions and removals from forests offers unprecedented detail for better management now. Reducing emissions from deforestation, while also scaling up carbon dioxide removals available from forests, is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">necessary</a> for staying below 1.5 degrees of warming.</p>